I haven’t filled out my official* Oscar ballot yet, and I will wait until the last possible second.
And that’s because I don’t have a clue.
Truly. Usually I have sort of a feel for things, but this year I just don’t know.
These are my guesses for right now. Sometimes I’ll give justification, sometimes you can figure I just threw a dart. This might change by the time I fill out my two ballots (one for me, one for Roger Ebert. Who, I gotta say, was way off last year.)
Lincoln. Argo has all the buzz right now, but if you choose the movie when you haven’t even nominated the director, doesn’t that make you look dumb?
Daniel Day-Lewis (but remember but Richard Gere was shoo-in? And he didn’t even get nominated.)
Either young or old here: Emmanuelle Riva or Quvenzhane Wallis. I’m going old.
Best supporting actor
Tommy Lee Jones, although I think Robert De Niro might pull this off.
Best supporting actress
If Sally Field wins, it’s just so everyone can mock her “you really like me” speech again. Otherwise, Anne Hathaway.
I’m giving Amour the best foreign language film. I didn’t see it, and after a friend described it as grim, I’m not sure I want to. I’d like to see Kon-Tiki, but the only one I will have seen by Oscar time will be A Royal Affair.
I can’t give away my picks for the smaller categories. They’re only worth 1 point in the Oscar pool, but I have a feeling I’ll need all the 1 points I can get.
*Not Academy Award official but Oscar party official.